However, new government figures suggest the decline may be less severe than initially feared, with production forecast to increase on last year.
German winegrowers are facing another below-average harvest in 2026, as prolonged drought and high summer temperatures take their toll on grape yields.
According to an initial forecast from the German Wine Institute (DWI), production could fall around 20% below the ten-year average of 8.7 million hectolitres, equivalent to approximately 7 million hectolitres.
However, a separate estimate published by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on 13 October puts the harvest at 8 million hectolitres, up 5% on 2025 but 4% below the 2020 to 2025 average.
The differing forecasts point to uncertainty surrounding the final size of the vintage, although both organisations expect smaller grapes and potentially high-quality wines following the hot, dry growing season.
Drought divides Germany’s vineyards
According to the DWI, the impact of this year’s drought has varied considerably depending on vineyard age and soil conditions.
Older vines, with deeper root systems, have generally coped better with water shortages, having adapted to increasingly dry growing conditions over recent years.
Younger vineyards and those planted on lighter soils have suffered more severely, with irrigation necessary wherever possible.
Destatis similarly attributed lower yields to the lack of rainfall, which has left grapes relatively small but increased the concentration of their components.
Despite the challenging conditions, widespread damage from hail and other extreme weather events has largely been avoided.
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The latest government figures suggest that seven of Germany’s wine regions could record larger harvests than in 2025.
Pfalz is expected to produce 2.1 million hectolitres, an increase of 11%, with Rheinhessen rising 6% to 2.4 million hectolitres.
Together, the two regions are forecast to account for 56% of Germany’s total production.
Baden is also expecting a substantial recovery, with yields increasing 17% to 1.2 million hectolitres.
However, several other regions face sharp declines.
The Ahr is forecast to lose half its production compared with 2025, with Franconia down 19%, Mosel falling 16% and Saale-Unstrut declining 22%.
Riesling production set to increase
Despite the challenging growing season, Germany’s flagship Riesling variety is expected to record an 8% increase in production to 1.8 million hectolitres.
Dornfelder is also forecast to grow 9% to 601,000 hectolitres.
By contrast, Silvaner production is expected to decline 5% to 304,000 hectolitres, with Portugieser falling 3% to 173,000 hectolitres.
White wine is expected to account for 70% of the national harvest, equivalent to 5.6 million hectolitres, compared with 2.4 million hectolitres of red wine.
Final figures remain uncertain
The Destatis forecast is based on estimates collected from approximately 400 volunteer harvest reporters as of 20 September.
The statistical office cautioned that figures could change as the harvest progresses, depending on weather conditions, disease pressure and other local factors.
The latest estimate also represents a downward revision from the 8.2 million hectolitres initially forecast for the 2025 vintage, which ultimately produced 7.7 million hectolitres.
Following an initial forecast that the French wine harvest would be the smallest in 30 years, a revised estimate now suggests it could be the lowest in a century.
According to the latest forecast, extreme heat and drought this summer mean that France’s wine output will likely be around 34.9 million hectolitres.
This revised estimate is down 2% compared to last year’s output and a striking 14% below the 2021–2025 average.
Bright spots remain in some areas, including Languedoc-Roussillon, which saw improved volumes due to late-summer rain. Here, the forecast is 2% above the five-year average.
In general, however, most areas saw declines, including Champagne, Burgundy-Beaujolais, Loire, Charentes, Jura and the South-East.
Part of a wider agricultural issue in France, the government last month issued an emergency aid package of more than €1 billion for farmers whose crops were impacted by the extreme heat.
Within this, some winegrowers could access the aid package, though only if less than 10% of their usable agricultural area was planted with vines.
On the dire conditions this year, the French farm ministry, said: “This fall stems from both a reduction in vineyard area and lower yields caused by drought and intense summer heat.
“Significant disparities remain between wine-growing regions: some are suffering substantial losses, while others are recording yields higher than those of the previous year.”
