This study examines the effects of FMD on household food security among smallholder livestock farmers in KwaZulu-Natal, using cross-sectional survey data. The Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), an ordered logit model, and a Poisson regression model are employed to estimate the determinants of food insecurity severity and intensity. The results show that 63% of households had some level of food insecurity, while only 37% were food secure during FMD outbreaks. Forced livestock slaughter, reductions in herd size, and increased feed costs during FMD significantly worsen household food security outcomes. Access to credit during FMD outbreaks is associated with higher food insecurity, suggesting it serves as a short-term coping mechanism rather than a resilience-enhancing strategy. In contrast, government support mitigates the adverse effects on food security from FMD-related shocks. The findings highlight the need for integrated FMD response policies that combine disease control with targeted livelihood and food security support for vulnerable smallholder households with the alignment of the National Developemnt plan of south Africa, SDG2 of ending hunger and poverty, and the African Union CAADP Strategy and Action Plan: 2026-2035, which aim to end hunger and poverty and intensify sustainable food production, agro-industrialisation, and trade, respectively.
Smallholder livestock farming across the globe and in southern Africa has never been under greater threat than in 2025/26, with the outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), a highly contagious viral illness that affects cloven-hoofed animals (Bruckner et al. Citation2002; DA, Citation2025). Endemic in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) mainly in the Kruger National Park (KNP) and surrounding game parks, the disease is caused by an Aphthovirus which spreads rapidly between herds. Transmission occurs through direct animal contact, contaminated feed, water, or farm equipment (Bruckner et al. Citation2002). As the livestock production sub-sector plays a central role in the livelihoods of smallholder farmers, in South Africa, cattle, goats, and sheep farming are primary sources of income and food security, and they also serve as stores of wealth, cultural assets, and critical safety nets against economic shocks (Molony et al. Citation2025). While FMD-associated mortality rates among adult animals are linked to death and forced slaughter, FMD also causes severe productivity losses through weight loss, reduced milk yields, fertility problems, and high morbidity, particularly among young stock (CitationKnight-Jones et al. 2016). The outbreak of FMD typically triggers strict animal movement controls and trade restrictions, which can be economically devastating for livestock producers, resulting in income losses, higher production costs, and heightened vulnerability to food insecurity (Triatmojo et al. Citation2025).
The scale and persistence of recent FMD outbreaks in South Africa have underscored the severity of these risks. The 2025 FMD outbreak has been described as a major national disaster, with reported cases rising from approximately 7,700 in 2022 to over 24,400 in 2025, representing the highest annual total ever recorded (BFAP, Citation2025). The outbreak spread rapidly across eight of South Africa’s nine provinces. However, by early February 2026, the first case of FMD was reported on a farm in Kuruman in the John Taolo Gaetsewe District of the Northern Cape province, before the province was the only Foot and Mouth disease-free province in the country (BFAP, Citation2025; du Plessis Citation2026).
Economic assessments conducted in mid-2025, based on fewer than 3,000 reported cases, were quickly overtaken by the evolving epidemiological reality, highlighting both the crisis's speed and unpredictability. The gross production value in the beef industry is estimated to reach R11.3 billion under high-burden scenarios, driven by export suspensions, reduced production, and large-scale animal losses. Many animals are culled under mandatory disease control measures, especially in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. BFAP (2025) has shown that the impacts of FMD currently extend far beyond animal health, with profound implications for agricultural trade, rural employment, and long-term food security.
State’s failure to meet foot-and-mouth disease vaccination deadlines sparks farmer outrage
At the farm level, the negative consequences of FMD are mounting, as farmers are prohibited from selling animals or milk, leading them to discard them. At the same time, infected or exposed livestock die or are euthanised. The disease also leads to longer-term fertility and productivity issues, which undermine recovery prospects, compounded by increased expenditures on veterinary treatment, biosecurity measures, and feed, which place additional strain on already-constrained household budgets while deepening some farmers’ credit vulnerability to their input suppliers. With smallholder farmers wrestling to contain the disease amid increasing mortality, movement restrictions, declining livestock quality and prices, and rising input and farm management costs, these strains food security for less diversified smallholder farmers.
While macroeconomic, sectoral, and farm-level impacts of FMD have been documented (BFAP, Citation2025; DA, Citation2025), its impact on household food security remains unclear, given the severity of the outbreak. To develop resilience and adaptive mechanisms in response to these shocks, a clear account of the depth of the disease's impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers is critical. The existing literature (CitationKnight-Jones et al., 2016; CitationSirdar 2020; Kerfua, Railey, and Marsh Citation2023; Triatmojo et al. Citation2025) focuses on disease epidemiology, trade effects, and socioeconomic impacts, with relatively little attention paid to how disease-induced livestock losses translate into changes in household food access, dietary quality, and consumption stability. This signifies a critical gap, as food insecurity is often one of the most immediate and consequential welfare outcomes experienced by smallholder farming households.
