This raises an interesting question: what will an agricultural robot actually be worth after 5 or 10 years, or even after 30 years?
With tractors, combines and other farm machinery, we have a fairly good idea. Age, operating hours, maintenance, brand and technical condition all provide a reasonable indication of residual value. With agricultural robots, we still have to discover how this will work. They are a new breed in the world of farm machinery, and one that has only just learned to stand on its own feet.
So when does a robot actually become old? A tractor can easily last 30 years or more, particularly older, analogue machines that are not dependent on software updates. With robots, things are fundamentally different. And that immediately creates one of the biggest uncertainties for anyone considering a used robot.
To address those concerns, robot manufacturers promise long-term software support and opportunities to upgrade their machines. Naïo, for example, can equip older Oz robots with new hardware, GPS and a modem. Other manufacturers also try to keep their robots up to date through software and hardware upgrades. In principle, a robot built in 2022 could therefore still offer almost the same functionality as a newer machine many years later.
But the opposite is also possible. Cameras, GPUs, LiDAR and AI are developing at tremendous speed. At some point, new software may no longer run on older hardware. A robot that is mechanically in excellent condition could then still become technologically obsolete. Much like a smartphone: it still works, but the latest software will no longer run on it.
Second-hand market could accelerate adoption
A healthy second-hand market could meanwhile give robot adoption a significant boost, particularly among smaller growers. Those unwilling or unable to immediately invest €100,000 or several hundred thousand euros could get started with autonomous farming much more cheaply through a used machine. Just as generations of farmers bought their first larger tractor, self-propelled sprayer or combine second-hand.
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But what are you actually buying when you buy a used robot?
For me, that is still the big unknown. Robots depend much more heavily on software, connectivity, service contracts and subscriptions than traditional farm machinery. Will software licences and subscriptions transfer without restrictions to a second or third owner? And will manufacturers continue supporting older generations?
And what happens if the manufacturer no longer exists ten years from now? Many robot manufacturers are still relatively small and vulnerable companies. In recent years, the sector has already seen several manufacturers disappear or run into financial difficulties. A used tractor will usually keep running regardless. But what happens to a robot that depends on its manufacturer for updates, software or cloud connectivity?
Operating hours may also take on a different meaning. Burro reports robots clocking up 20,000 to 30,000 hours in just four years. After all, autonomy makes it possible to accumulate many more operating hours in a relatively short period. But electric motors and gearboxes still wear out. A robot could therefore use up its technical lifespan faster than a tractor.
Manufacturers that continue supporting older machines, make upgrades possible and allow software to be transferred to new owners could therefore gain an important advantage. Just as with cars and tractors, a strong reputation on the second-hand market can also help sell new robots.
But ultimately, someone has to put a value on that used machine. And that makes me particularly curious about a party we rarely hear from in discussions about agricultural robots: the financier. How will a bank determine the residual value of a €200,000 or €300,000 robot that may still be mechanically sound five years from now, but for which nobody knows whether its software will still be supported?
