Are these predictions something farmers should take notice of? And is anybody actually checking whether the predictions are becoming reality?
Farmers are surrounded by predictions. Economists predict grain prices. Weather experts predict rainfall and drought. Banks predict input costs and food inflation. Commodity analysts predict international markets. AI systems are now adding another layer of predictions based on enormous amounts of data.
But there is a bigger question that we do not hear often enough.
Who is going back and checking whether these predictions actually happened?
If a prediction was made six months ago, somebody should be asking today: Was it correct? Did it happen as predicted? If not, what changed?
This is the big picture in farming right now, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for the farmer to see where he fits into all this information.
THE WORLD GRAIN MARKET
International agriculture is entering a period where grain prices, politics, weather and international trade are closely connected. The United States and China, tariffs, export restrictions, subsidies and geopolitical tensions can all influence where crops are planted and what farmers eventually receive for their products.
At the same time, global grain supplies can still be relatively comfortable.
That creates a strange situation. One report can tell us that supplies are comfortable, while another warns that weather or political problems could quickly change the picture.
Both can be correct because they are based on different assumptions.
The problem comes when a prediction is treated as a fact.
SOUTH AFRICA HAS A BUFFER
South Africa enters the 2026/27 production season from a much stronger position than during some previous difficult seasons.
We have come off a very good summer grain and oilseed harvest, and water supplies have also been relatively strong.
That gives the country a buffer.
But a good previous season does not guarantee a good coming season.
Farmers know this better than anybody. Every new season starts with a new set of conditions.
WEATHER IS THE BIG UNKNOWN
El Niño is one of the biggest issues being discussed for the coming summer.
Weather authorities and agricultural economists are warning that a strong El Niño could bring hotter and drier conditions to parts of Southern Africa.
That is something farmers must take seriously.
But there is an important difference between saying there is a high weather risk and saying we know exactly what the season will bring.
We don't.
A weather model can identify a pattern and provide probabilities, but the farmer's rainfall can still be very different from what happens 500 kilometres away.
This is why local conditions remain so important.
WHAT ABOUT GRAIN AND FERTILISER PRICES?
Farmers are also watching fertiliser and fuel prices very closely.
International fertiliser markets have been affected by energy prices, trade restrictions and geopolitical conflicts. South Africa is heavily dependent on imported fertiliser, which means international events can quickly become a local farming problem.
Grain prices, however, do not always move in the same direction as input costs.
The farmer can therefore find himself in a difficult position where fertiliser, fuel, machinery and finance become more expensive while the price received for the crop does not increase at the same rate.
That is where the real pressure comes in.
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EVERY FORECAST HAS ASSUMPTIONS
This is something every farmer should remember.
A prediction is built on assumptions.
If the weather changes, the prediction changes.
If China changes its export policy, the prediction changes.
If the war situation changes, the prediction changes.
If the rand moves sharply, the prediction changes.
If production is higher or lower than expected, the prediction changes.
That does not necessarily mean the economist or weather expert was wrong. It means the circumstances changed.
But somebody still needs to go back and measure the prediction against reality.
WHERE IS THE PREDICTION SCORECARD?
This is perhaps the question we should be asking much more often.
We hear predictions every week.
Grain prices will rise.
Grain prices will fall.
Rainfall will be below normal.
Rainfall will improve.
Food inflation will increase.
Fertiliser prices will remain high.
El Niño will reduce production.
Global supplies will remain comfortable.
But six months later, who is checking?
Who is comparing the original prediction with what actually happened?
Who is asking which models were accurate and which assumptions were wrong?
Without that process, predictions simply become another stream of information that farmers have to absorb.
AI IS CHANGING THE GAME
Artificial intelligence is going to make agricultural forecasting even more powerful.
AI can process weather information, satellite images, market prices, soil information and historical data at a speed that no individual farmer can match.
There is enormous value in that.
But farmers also need to ask who owns the system, what information it uses and what assumptions are built into the model.
A prediction can look very scientific on a computer screen, but the farmer still has to make the decision on the ground.
DON'T LOSE THE FARMER
There is a danger that agriculture becomes so focused on models, numbers and predictions that we forget the person actually producing the food.
The farmer still knows his soil.
He knows where water normally collects.
He knows which fields dry out first.
He knows his cattle.
He knows his veld.
He knows what happened during previous droughts.
He watches the sky every day.
That practical knowledge should not compete with modern technology.
The two should work together.
USE PREDICTIONS AS A TOOL
The answer is not to ignore predictions.
Farmers should watch the weather models. They should watch grain markets, fertiliser prices, fuel prices, currency movements, water levels and international developments.
But predictions should be used as a tool for decision-making, not as certainty.
The most important question should always be: What is happening on my farm right now?
PREDICT, CHECK AND ADAPT
Perhaps agriculture needs a stronger culture of checking predictions against reality.
Make the prediction.
Record it.
Watch what happens.
Compare the prediction with the actual outcome.
Learn from the difference.
Then make the next decision.
That is especially important in a farming environment that has become more volatile, uncertain and difficult to predict.
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THE FARMER MUST REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE
Economists have their models. Weather scientists have their models. Banks have their forecasts. Commodity traders have their algorithms. AI has its calculations.
But the farmer carries the consequences when those predictions are wrong.
That is why we should not reject predictions, but neither should we blindly follow them.
Listen to the prediction. Look at the evidence. Check what is happening on the ground. Then make your decision.
The farmer should never disappear behind the prediction.
Predict. Monitor. Measure. Compare. Learn. Adapt.
That is farming.
