In South Africa and globally, farmers are often price takers, meaning they have little control over the market prices of their crops. They must accept prices dictated by supply and demand, international markets, and local conditions. However, the costs of farming—seeds, fertilizers, fuel, and labor—continue to rise, placing immense pressure on farmers' profitability. For South African maize farmers, 2025 has brought a mix of relief and concern: high maize prices due to a challenging season offer some financial respite, but these prices are driving up the cost of maize meal, a staple food for millions of low-income households. This dynamic threatens food security, potentially exacerbating hunger and contributing to already high levels of theft and social unrest.
Maize farming is resource-intensive, and input costs have surged in recent years. Fertilizers, which account for roughly a third of grain farmers’ input costs, have seen prices remain elevated since pre-COVID-19 levels, particularly affecting smallholder farmers who dominate production in neighboring countries like Zimbabwe. In South Africa, about 70% of fertilizers and 98% of agrochemicals are imported, making farmers vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and global supply chain disruptions. Fuel, another critical input, constitutes 11% of variable costs, and while lower oil prices have offered some relief, the weak South African rand continues to inflate expenses.
Maize prices in South Africa have reached record highs in early 2025, with white maize prices climbing over 23% in the past year and trading at around R6,000 per ton in some markets. Several factors are driving this surge:
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Reduced Supply: The 2024 drought devastated maize production across Southern Africa, with Zimbabwe losing 60% of its crop and Zambia 50%. South Africa’s relatively better harvest still fell short of the previous year’s, tightening local and regional supply.
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Strong Regional Demand: Countries like Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, which declared states of disaster due to drought, rely heavily on South African maize exports. South Africa exported 3.21 million tons of whole maize and 548,000 tons of processed maize products in the 2023/24 marketing season, but exportable surplus is limited this year.
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Weather Uncertainty: While the 2024/25 season (aligned with the 2025/26 marketing year) offers hope with La Niña rains forecast to improve yields, erratic and late rains have raised concerns about crop forecasts. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) projects a 2024 maize production of 13.255 million tons, a 19.32% decline from 2023, with an expected yield of 5.03 tons per hectare. Recent posts on X highlight the severity, noting that heavy rains have made harvesting difficult, with some farmers resorting to tracks for their harvesters.
High maize prices are a boon for farmers recovering from a difficult season, providing a cushion against elevated input costs. However, these prices have significant downstream effects, particularly on maize meal, the cornerstone of South Africa’s food security.
Maize meal, particularly from white maize, is a dietary mainstay for over 60% of South Africans, consumed as “pap” (porridge) with an average per capita consumption of 81kg per year. It is affordable, fortified with vitamins and minerals, and critical for low-income households, where 74.9% of the population earns less than ZAR5,200 ($320) per month. However, rising maize prices directly inflate maize meal costs, threatening its accessibility.
In 2016, a severe drought led to a 20% increase in maize meal prices, with projections for a further 10% rise. The current situation mirrors this, with white maize scarcity driving prices closer to import parity (when importing becomes cheaper than local production). Global white maize supplies are limited, primarily produced in South Africa and Mexico, making imports costly and logistically challenging. As a result, maize meal prices are expected to rise significantly in 2025, potentially pushing low-income consumers to switch to alternatives like bread, which is also subject to price volatility.
This price surge exacerbates food insecurity. In 2008, a 25% increase in maize meal prices meant that the poorest 10% of South Africans spent nearly 40% of their income on maize meal alone, up from 30% the previous year. With food inflation already a concern (6% annually in February 2024), further increases could worsen malnutrition, as maize meal provides 54% of energy intake for poor consumers.
The rising cost of maize meal could deepen hunger, particularly in rural and urban low-income areas. Sub-Saharan Africa already faces a growing hunger crisis, with 23% of the population undernourished in 2023, up from 18% in 2015. In South Africa, over 30% of pre-school children are stunted due to poor nutrition. As maize meal becomes less affordable, households may reduce food intake or rely on less nutritious alternatives, compounding health issues.
Moreover, food insecurity is linked to social instability. South Africa already grapples with high crime rates, including agricultural theft driven by economic desperation. Rising food prices could fuel this trend, as seen during past price spikes when theft of crops and livestock increased. The potential for civil unrest also looms, as historical food crises have sparked protests when staple foods become unaffordable.
South African maize farmers are caught in a challenging cycle: high input costs and unpredictable weather threaten their livelihoods, yet rising maize prices offer a lifeline after a difficult season. However, these prices ripple through to maize meal, a staple food for the poor, risking hunger and social unrest in a country already grappling with economic inequality and crime. The 2024/25 season holds cautious optimism with better rains, but the forecast of a smaller crop underscores the fragility of food security. Policymakers must act swiftly to support farmers, protect consumers, and build a more resilient agricultural system to weather the storms—both literal and economic—that lie ahead.
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