World Farming Agriculture Commodity news - Weekly Updated - Exclusive and very popular - Delivering a Media service 365 days of the year
Tariff threats and soil moisture imbalances at the start of the season set the tone for Australia's 2025/26 winter crop.
Australian cropping area for the 2025/26 season is projected to increase to 24.8m hectares, driven by positive soil moisture levels in northern New South Wales and Queensland and a range-bound gross margin outlook for most crops. The 2.1% YOY rise in national cropping area is expected to benefit most crops, except for wheat. Despite US tariff-driven efforts to reorder global trade, Australia's key grain & oilseed exports seem largely unscathed for now and may gain global market share. Asian countries rely on Australia to source grains and pulses, and the EU imports canola to balance its supply of oilseeds. With increased wheat supply from the EU and another robust wheat crop in the Black Sea region likely, there are not many reasons to be bullish. Speculators seem to agree, holding record net short positions on CBOT wheat. For canola, the key questions are the extent of the EU’s import demand and how much Canada can supply.
Brazil, the world’s top chicken exporter, confirmed its first H5N1 bird flu outbreak on a commercial poultry farm in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul, on May 16, 2025, leading to significant trade disruptions. The farm supplies Vibra Foods, backed by Tyson Foods, which exports to over 60 countries. China imposed a 60-day nationwide import ban, while Argentina suspended all Brazilian poultry imports until the country is declared bird flu-free. Japan, UAE, and Saudi Arabia restricted imports from the affected state, with potential to narrow to the municipality. The outbreak, which killed 17,000 chickens, prompted veterinary officials to isolate a 10-km radius and cull remaining birds. Brazil, accounting for 35% of global chicken trade ($10 billion in 2024), is working to contain the outbreak and negotiate relaxed trade restrictions. Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro emphasized robust health protocols and consumer safety, noting poultry products remain safe for consumption. The situation is under control, with no risk to products shipped before May 15.
The European Commission has proposed new subsidies under the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), valued at €387 billion for 2021–2027, to support farmers who reduce water waste, as part of the post-2027 budget negotiations. The draft policy includes “transition packages” offering funding and guidance for water-efficient practices like drought-resistant crops and precision irrigation, addressing water scarcity driven by climate change and industry. Despite agriculture suffering from droughts and floods that have reduced crop yields, the EU has relaxed some environmental rules on existing subsidies due to farmers’ protests against regulatory burdens. The European Investment Bank will also increase funding for water projects, such as wetland restoration, though details on amounts are pending. The draft is set for release in June 2025.
The European Commission has proposed a comprehensive package to simplify the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), aiming to reduce administrative burdens, enhance farmers’ competitiveness, and improve crisis response. The measures could save farmers €1.58 billion and national administrations €210 million annually by streamlining payments, controls, and requirements. Key changes include:
Simplified Payments for Small Farmers: Raising the annual lump-sum payment limit from €1,250 to €2,500, exempting small farmers from certain environmental rules while offering eco-scheme payments.
Streamlined Environmental Requirements: Recognizing certified organic farms as meeting some environmental standards, offering incentives for peatland and wetland protection, and reducing control burdens through satellite technology and limiting on-site checks to one per year.
Enhanced Crisis Management: Introducing crisis payments for natural disasters or animal diseases and more flexible risk management tools.
Boosted Competitiveness and Digitalization: Providing up to €50,000 in lump-sum funding for small farmers and promoting interoperable digital systems to reduce data reporting burdens.
These changes, based on stakeholder feedback, aim to support resilience, digitalization, and young and organic farmers. The proposal awaits approval from the European Parliament and Council, with further simplification measures planned for later in 2025.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects Canadian canola exports at 7.6 million tonnes for 2025-26, a decrease from 8.75 million tonnes in 2024-25 but an increase from 6.75 million tonnes in 2023-24, despite China’s anti-dumping investigation launched in September 2024. The USDA bases its forecast on current policies allowing Canadian canola imports, driven by China’s demand for canola meal, though a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal forces domestic crushing. China, Canada’s largest buyer, purchased 3.7 million tonnes in the first eight months of 2024-25, but the investigation, which could conclude by March 2026, poses a risk of tariffs, as seen in Australia’s barley case (80.5% tariff for nearly three years). Chinese importers are stockpiling canola in anticipation, while global demand remains strong. Limited supply (1.60 million tonnes carryout for 2024-25) and challenges with alternative sources like Russian and Ukrainian canola (due to transaction issues and crop troubles) support the USDA’s forecast, assuming China maintains market access.
Support for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has hit a record low, with nearly nine out of every 10 voters dissatisfied with the government's response tosoaring price of rice, the nation's beloved staple, Kyodo news agency reported on Sunday. Support for Ishiba's government was at 27.4%, down from 32.6% a month ago, a Kyodo poll showed, boding ill for his ruling Liberal Democratic Party and junior coalition partner Komeito in an upper house election slated for July. The poll showed 87.1% of respondents found government measures addressing rising rice prices insufficient. Retail rice prices are about double what they were a year ago after extreme heat hit crops and a tourism boom added to demand, although the government in March started releasing stockpiled rice into the market.
DISCLAIMER
The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent. The information contained in this website is for general information purposes only. The information is provided by CRA and while we endeavour to keep the information up to date and correct, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the website or the information, products, services, or related graphics contained on the website for any purpose. Any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk.
