Global pork prices remain weak due to stagnant demand and oversupply.
Sentiment is subdued across major producing regions, as prices across regions generally stay lower than the previous years. The key reason is the excess supply, although the causes vary by region. In China, supply has expanded due to capacity expansion and productivity gains over the past five years. In Europe, pork prices stay low as Spain’s exports continue to be constrained by its ASF status, leaving more pork to be absorbed within the regional market. In addition, Europe’s pork production has risen, which also contributes to pressured prices. In North America, supply is modestly higher than last year, while demand remains weak. Across the regions, productivity improvement plays an important role in the supply growth, as producers have been focusing on cost and efficiency. Looking ahead, the ongoing decline in China’s sow herd is expected to lead to reduced supply, starting in mid/late Q3. However, any price recovery in China is likely to be modest given the still-weak demand. North America will also likely see some improvement in Q4 if not earlier than that.
Trade is expected to remain stable in 2H, although structural shifts are ongoing. Export patterns are shifting, as Europe’s market share has declined following disease issues and weaker demand from China, and Brazil has expanded share rapidly. Meanwhile, import patterns are also evolving, with Mexico and the Philippines significantly increasing imports, and China reducing volume. Trade remains vulnerable to disease developments, geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy adjustments. While the USMCA remains fully in force, the US’ decision not to extend the agreement increases uncertainty on investment decisions across North America but has limited near-term trade implications. The Philippines officially lifted a nationwide ban on pork imports from Spain. China’s antidumping duties on EU pork imports, combined with the excessive supply in China, resulted in a decline of 29% in the first five months. All of these developments suggest trade volatility will continue in 2H 2026.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, a vast water mass that tends to affect the weather globally. The event is currently active according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other weather services and is expected to strengthen, potentially reaching very strong levels by the end of the year. NOAA defines El Niño conditions as a warm anomaly of at least 0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region (a region in the equatorial Pacific) over a three-month rolling period. In this report, we will look in more detail at the main effects of El Niño on agricultural and animal protein production.
After decades of rapid growth, Brazil’s soybean sector is entering a transition phase in 2026/27, with planted area expected to stabilize as tighter margins, higher costs, and constrained credit shift the focus from expansion to efficiency gains. While production remains at historically high levels, growth is moderating, making yields, weather risks (notably El Niño), and macroeconomic conditions increasingly critical drivers of the outlook.
The United States and Chile have expanded their list of approved American beef cut names, adding 34 new cuts effective July 15, 2026, bringing the total number of US beef cuts approved for the Chilean market to 98.The expansion follows an exchange of letters between the USDA and Chile's Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG), the result of technical work carried out since 2021 by USDA, SAG and the US Meat Export Federation. Chile defines beef cuts according to its own national standard, which cannot be modified. The work involved matching the anatomical descriptions in the Chilean standard with cuts described in the US Meat Marketing Guide. The 34 new additions include additional ribeye specifications under the Chilean cut Lomo Vetado, several short rib variations under Asado de Tira, and multiple top round sub-cuts under Posta Negra, among others. The US exported $59.7 million in beef to Chile in 2025, against total Chilean beef imports of $1.6 billion from all sources. The expanded list gives US exporters the opportunity to offer more specialised cuts to Chilean buyers. The original US-Chile Free Trade Agreement included 33 harmonised cuts. The list was expanded to 64 in 2012 and now reaches 98 with the latest additions.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - 20 July 2026
A goat-like cow is making a comeback in Spain's northwestern Galicia region, as communities reintroduce native livestock to rebalance ecosystems and reduce wildfires in an area that was at the epicentre of the country's worst year for fires in 2025.
Mass plantation of highly flammable pine and eucalyptus trees for industrial uses drove away native breeds like the "Cachena", the Iberian peninsula's smallest breed of cow, with much of the terrain left untended and overgrown as rural populations migrated to cities.
The Cachena are known locally as "goat-cows" as they eat almost anything and are able to negotiate mountainous terrain that larger cows can't.
A fire in 2017 that tore through the parish of Vincios prompted community associations who collectively manage the land to opt for a centuries-old wildfire prevention technique — breeding native livestock including goats, sheep, and the nimble long-horned Cachena cows, which help clear flammable undergrowth by grazing on the land.
Their efforts, together with those of other associations across Galicia, have boosted the population of native livestock from just over 1,800 in the late 1990s to more than 30,000 by early 2026, according to regional association BOAGA — including roughly 8,000 Cachena cows, up from 400.
The regional government granted incentives to farmers to keep young female cows rather than selling them, and a local zoological centre provided bulls at low cost to facilitate breeding.
"The native livestock keeps scrubland at an appropriate height so it does not become dangerous," said Jose Taboada, coordinator of the Vincios land collective.
He gestured towards a portion of land scrubbed clean of flammable shrubs like brambles, gorse and broom, which contain oils that burn intensely and can carry fires from the ground into the tree canopy.The cows keep the vegetation under control without eradicating it altogether, Taboada explained, adding that the animals wore GPS collars, eliminating the need for fences and allowing them to roam freely.
"They are perfectly adapted to terrain like ours," Taboada said.
Vincios is one of roughly 3,000 communities in Galicia that, as collectives, manage around 700,000 hectares, a quarter of the region's land, in a practice dating back to medieval times and formally legalised in 1989.
The region is one of the most affected in Spain by wildfires, with nearly 119,000 hectares (294,000 acres) of land burned last year, an area roughly double the size of Madrid.
Scientists link increasingly severe wildfire seasons across southern Europe to climate change. Spain, the third-most forested country in Europe, has registered average temperatures 5.6 degrees Celsius (41.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above 1961-1990 levels in July so far, according to the Reuters Climate Monitor.
Landowners and collectives in other Spanish regions like Andalusia, Catalonia, and Castile-La Mancha have also opted for breeding livestock to prevent fires.
The technique is backed by scientific studies, but should be used in conjunction with other strategies like mechanical thinning and pruning of biomass and controlled burning of land carried out by specialised personnel, said forestry engineer and professor Jose Vicente Oliver.
"Livestock farmers need to earn a living by producing meat, or milk. But our common-land communities care about land stewardship," Taboada said. "This area has always burned... the livestock allow us to keep the woodland open, managed, and under control."
A new 25% US tariff will hit a range of Brazilian goods on Wednesday, including farm machinery, wood products, ethanol and apparel, escalating tensions in an already strained relationship between the two most populous countries in the Western Hemisphere.
The tariff is the first levied under the Trump administration's new strategy of using the Trade Act of 1974 to investigate what it considers unfair trade practices. The White House's blanket assertion of emergency powers to levy high tariffs against most global partners was struck down by the US Supreme Court earlier this year.
The new tariff threatens between $7 billion and $11 billion of Brazilian exports to the US, according to estimates from Brazil's government and National Confederation of Industry (CNI), respectively. That amounts to roughly 18% to 26% of Brazil's exports to the US.
To soften the domestic effect of the tariffs, the US exempted several key imports, including beef, coffee, aircraft and plane parts.
Brazil is the first country hit with a tariff after a year-long Section 301 investigation into unfair trade practices, even though the US has consistently had a trade surplus with Brazil.
"This is the irony of the US measures," said Welber Barral, a former Brazilian foreign trade secretary, noting the bilateral trade balance.
Washington has argued tariffs are necessary to counter what it calls unfair trade practices, from electronic payment services to ethanol market access and illegal deforestation.
The tariffs take effect just two days before a temporary 10% global tariff expires and after a Supreme Court ruling struck down previous 50% US duties on Brazilian goods that forced exporters to seek new markets.
Footwear layoffs
For many sectors, the adjustments have already been painful.
Brazil's footwear industry, which counts the US as its top foreign market, has already downgraded its export outlook for the year to an expected 7.1% drop, compared with its previous forecast for a 3.6% drop.
The US buys one in every five shoes exported from Brazil, according to the Brazilian Footwear Industries Association (Abicalçados).
"There is no other market capable of replacing the US," said Toni Hajel, owner of exporter TH Shoes and head of the footwear industry union in Franca, a key hub for footwear production in Sao Paulo state.
He said about 40% of the area's exports, or 650,000 pairs a year, are sold to the US The new tariffs will make those sales unviable, he added, forcing producers to lay off workers unless Brazil renegotiates the duties or secures a footwear exemption.
Long-term consequences
Economists warn that the uncertainty created by successive measures and partial exemptions may have consequences well beyond immediate trade losses.
"It undermines confidence," said Gustavo Pessoa, an economics professor at the Fundação Getulio Vargas university in São Paulo, who traveled to Washington this month to argue against the tariffs at a public hearing.
Pessoa said the tariffs would hinder long-term trade relations on both sides: US buyers may fear more Brazilian products will be targeted, while Brazilian exporters may not invest in supply chains geared toward the US market.
US tariffs have already hurt bilateral trade, CNI data show, with Brazilian exports to the US down $2.6 billion, or 13% in the first half of this year from the same period of 2025, driven largely by declines in industrial goods such as iron and steel products, petroleum oils and wood pulp.
Brazil is also part of a separate US investigation into forced labor allegations that ends on July 24, which could add another 12.5% tariff, potentially pushing total duties on some goods to 37.5%.
The outstanding probe has left Brazilian officials in limbo, with Brazilian Trade Minister Marcio Elias Rosa recently saying he had no idea how the penalty will be implemented, even though he expects it to be confirmed.
"We will find out if it will be cumulative or not, whether we will have 25% plus 12.5% or if we will get an exemption," he told reporters in Brasilia.
Canadian sales of combines were 153, up 14% from 134 in June 2025. Canadian tractor sales were 1,941 for June, down 13% from June 2025.
“The June data reflects a market that is still navigating significant economic headwinds,” said Curt Blades, senior vice president at AEM. “Although tractor sales remain below last year’s levels, the increase in combine sales is a welcome[d] development and demonstrates that farmers continue to invest where it makes the most sense for their operations. Greater certainty around market conditions and long-term farm policy remains critical to supporting confidence across rural America.”
Tractor Sales
Total U.S. farm tractor sales for June 2026 were 18,186, down 18% from June 2025 with 22,287 sold. Year-to-date, AEM reported 103,123 total farm tractors were sold as of June this year, down 14% from this time last year. Total farm tractor inventory began at 94,547 in June.
Association of Equipment Manufacturers
Reporting data came from AEM members who provided sales numbers from their dealers through proprietary reporting programs.
Tractor sales were segmented by horsepower range, as follows:
2WD Sub-40-HP Tractors
U.S. sales in June were down 22% from 2025, with 11,767 sales this year and 15,084 last year. Year-to-date, AEM reported 58,156 tractors had been sold in this category, down 16% from 68,992 at the same time last year. 2WD sub-40-hp tractor inventory began at 61,559 in June.
2WD 40–100-HP Tractors
Sales in June were down 10%, with 4,983 sales this year, and 5,539 last year. Year-to-date, AEM reported 22,824 tractors had been sold in this category, down 6% from 24,304 at the same time last year. 2WD 40–100-hp tractor inventory began at 25,873 in June.
2WD 100-Plus- HP Tractors
Sales in June were down 12%, with 1,312 sales this year, compared with 1,486 last year. Year-to-date, AEM reported 7,193 tractors had been sold in this category, down 17% from 8,647 at the same time last year. 2WD 100-plus-hp tractor inventory began at 6,658 in June.
4WD Tractors
U.S. sales were down 30% in June, with 124 sales this year, and 178 last year. Year-to-date, AEM reported 890 tractors had been sold in this category, down 25% from 1,180 at the same time last year. 4WD tractor inventory began at 457 in June.
Combine Sales
Sales for self-propelled combines in the U.S. were up 4% in June, with 269 sold this year compared with 259 last year. Year-to-date, AEM reported 1,335 combines had been sold as of June, down 11% from 1,507 at the same time last year. Self-propelled combine inventory began at 841 in June.
Commodity Prices
