With South Africa’s 2026-27 agricultural season set to start in mid-October, rising input costs are once again top of mind for grain farmers. Fertiliser and fuel together make up roughly half of the cost of producing grain, and both are still expensive as farmers get ready to plant. The worry is no longer just about local prices. What happens in global export markets now decides what fertiliser is available here and what we will pay for it.
International fertiliser prices have stayed high through 2026, even though they have come down a bit from the 2022 and 2023 peaks. The same pressures from last year are still driving the market. Energy costs remain a big factor, several major producing countries are limiting exports to protect their own food supply, and shipping and logistics are still tight. Products like urea and ammonium nitrate move closely with natural gas prices.
Phosphate prices are being held up by tight supply from Morocco and China. Potash is still affected by sanctions and lower exports from Russia and Belarus. South Africa imports about 80% of the fertiliser it uses, so any change in export prices from these countries shows up in local prices within weeks.
Availability is just as big a concern as price. A number of key exporters are putting their own farmers first. China continues to keep informal limits on phosphate and urea exports. Russian fertiliser is moving, but payments, insurance and shipping problems still add cost and cause delays. The Middle East is currently the most reliable source of urea for South Africa, but it is also in high demand from India, Brazil and the United States, so competition for those cargoes is strong. Freight rates from the Black Sea and the Middle East have also not fallen back to where they were before 2022. That means even if the basic export price eases, the final cost to South African ports stays high.
For South African grain farmers the timing could not be more important. Buying decisions for the October planting window are being made right now. If global export prices jump again, or if a major supplier cuts shipments, we could face both higher costs and tighter supply just as demand peaks. Industry groups say that stocks in port at the moment are adequate, but they are not large. There is very little buffer if there is a disruption. That is why cooperatives and input suppliers are watching closely and booking shipments months ahead.Fuel adds to the pressure. Diesel is also still expensive, and together with fertiliser it pushes up the cost of tillage, planting and getting the crop to market.
Even with fairly good grain prices, margins for maize, wheat and soy producers remain under strain.Looking ahead, analysts expect fertiliser prices to stay volatile through the first half of the new season. The best case would be stable energy prices and no new export restrictions. The risk case would be a weather-driven surge in demand in the Northern Hemisphere or new geopolitical steps that tighten supply further.For farmers the advice is simple.
Plan early, lock in what you can, and keep a close eye on both export price trends and shipping availability. With fertiliser and fuel accounting for about half of input costs, any move in global export markets will decide whether the 2026-27 season starts on solid ground or under financial pressure. We are watching these export price and availability signals closely as mid-October approaches.
