World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -11 May 2026

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -11 May 2026

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Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Wheat and barley: Global grain markets are entering a critical phase for 2026/27 as weather risks intensify during Northern Hemisphere grain filling. Drought stress in the US Plains and dryness in Europe are tightening supply expectations, supporting firmer global wheat and barley prices.Canola: Oilseed markets strengthened over the past month, supported by higher energy prices, expanding biofuel mandates and firm demand. Policy changes in Europe, especially Germany, are set to lift canola use in biodiesel, tightening supplies and supporting prices despite ongoing volatility.Beef: Australian cattle prices dipped through April as drier conditions in northern NSW saw a large increase in cattle sales through saleyards. Global markets however remain strong and with other areas of the country able to absorb the northern NSW numbers. RaboResearch expects cattle prices to stabilise and possibly lift.Sheepmeat: Lamb and mutton prices although dipping slightly at the end of April continue to remain at historically high levels. With the ongoing limitations on lamb and mutton supply we believe this high prices will remain as we head towards the seasonally lower slaughter months.Wool: Wool prices performed well in April, with the Eastern Market Indicator up 8.7% month-on-month. On a year-on-year basis, the EMI is now up an impressive 53.8%, highlighting how quickly market dynamics have shifted amid tightening wool supply.Cotton: ICE #2 cotton futures have rallied by around 20% since February, helping lift Australian cash prices above the AUD 600 per bale mark. Fund positioning appears to have turned more bullish, reflecting growing expectations of a slowdown in global cotton production.Farm inputs: Fertiliser markets remain firm, with global urea prices continuing to rise as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz constrains global supply. RaboResearch has also noted a sharp month‑on‑month increase of around 20% in phosphate prices, driven by extremely tight sulphur availability.Sugar: Sugar prices have proven volatile in recent weeks but overall are not benefiting much from high global crude oil prices. Potential weather and production risks could improve the outlook later in the year as El Niño might impact cops in key Asian producing regions.Dairy: The rally in commodity values to start 2026 has started to lose some steam. Further upside in the near-term is limited with cheese markets, well supplied. Nonetheless, the recovery has provided a better footing for new season milk pricing.Consumer foods: Australian consumer confidence remains very fragile. Food inflation is running at 3% year-on-year in March but further upside to food prices in the coming months will emerge as higher costs in the food system are passed through.Interest rates and FX: The RBA is expected to lift the cash rate to 4.35% in May and RaboResearch is anticipating one more rate hike later this year as the Iran war continues to create inflation headaches.Oil and freight: Oil prices remained volatile in April but there was some good news as the UAE announced it will be leaving OPEC and China indicated that it may soon lift export bans of diesel and jet fuel. The move from the UAE will likely increase oil supply, but not until Hormuz reopens.

 Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks. 

Dairy: Oceania dairy prices diverge with SMP strength supporting NZ milk prices. At the same time, robust production here and in the Northern Hemisphere confirms a well-supplied market.Beef: Farmgate beef prices remain resilient as delayed supply begins to lift seasonally, with strong underlying demand and market confidence helping offset emerging pressure from higher throughput and evolving global uncertainty.Sheepmeat: Both lamb and mutton farmgate prices remain well supported by tight supply and diversified export demand. Rising seasonal throughput and global uncertainty may drive some gradual easing as autumn progresses.Farm inputs: Fertiliser markets remain firm, with global urea prices continuing to rise as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz constrains global supply. RaboResearch has also noted a sharp month‑on‑month increase of around 20% in phosphate prices, driven by extremely tight sulphur availability.Interest rates and FX: The OCR was left unchanged at 2.25% in April and is likely to remain so in May. The NZ Dollar rose by 2.8% to 0.59 against the USD last month and is expected to rally towards 0.62 over the next 12 months.Oil and freight: Oil prices remained volatile in April but there was some good news as the UAE announced it will be leaving OPEC and China indicated that it may soon lift export bans of diesel and jet fuel. The move from the UAE will likely increase oil supply, but not until Hormuz reopens.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -4th May 2026

The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks and the imposition of a naval blockade in April 2026, continues to put strong upward pressure on global fertilizer prices. The Persian Gulf region normally supplies around 40% of the world’s traded urea and 44% of seaborne sulfur, making any prolonged blockage highly significant for nitrogen and phosphate markets.According to a new global fertilizer model by North Dakota State University (NDSU), urea and DAP prices are expected to remain well above pre-crisis levels under all scenarios — ranging from a relatively quick reopening of the strait to a prolonged conflict. Urea could peak between $782 and $996 per short ton, while DAP is projected to reach between $866 and $945 per short ton, depending on how long the disruption lasts.What matters most for farmers is not just the peak price, but how long elevated prices persist into key purchasing windows. Fall 2026 prepay and winter fill periods are particularly vulnerable. Even in the more optimistic scenario, prices are expected to stay high through much of 2026 and ease only slowly into 2027. In a worst-case extended conflict scenario, high prices could stretch deep into the main booking period for the 2027 crop.The situation could prove more financially challenging for U.S. farmers than the 2022 fertilizer crisis, even if nominal peaks are lower. Corn prices are currently much weaker, offering far less revenue support to offset expensive inputs. This results in significantly worse fertilizer-to-corn affordability ratios.In short: The Hormuz disruption is likely to keep fertilizer prices elevated for an extended period, especially during critical 2026/27 purchasing windows. U.S. producers should prepare budgets for substantially higher nitrogen and phosphate costs for the 2027 season, as a quick return to early-2026 price levels looks unlikely.

Ukraine's chicken meat production is forecast to recover in 2026 following a difficult year in which the industry was forced to adapt to a range of war-related challenges, according to a recent poultry market report from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service. While production is expected to remain relatively low by historical standards, the outlook represents a gradual return to stability after a turbulent 2025.

The Russia-Ukraine war led to a series of production setbacks last year, including temporary stalls caused by prolonged electricity outages, labour shortages, rising input costs, and shrinking domestic demand. 

After an optimistic first half of 2025, output declined in the second half of the year. Although official annual production figures are not yet available, animal numbers and slaughter indicators suggest production stabilised by the end of 2025. Ukraine's largest poultry producer, MHP SE, reported a decline in production in its third-quarter 2025 results, though exports remained stable, drawn from existing stocks. Information from smaller producers is limited, though some have reported production and logistical difficulties.

The industry's vertical integration has provided additional resilience, enabling cross-subsidisation of poultry production from crop production, trading, oilseed crushing, and commodity exports. However, many producers were forced to cut output in 2025 and seek additional financial support.

The two largest poultry producers, MHP SE and Dniprovsky, restructured their debt to gain greater operational flexibility heading into 2026. Through significant effort to adjust, the industry is likely to return to production levels similar to 2024, though further growth beyond that is considered unlikely.

All chicken meat producers faced growing production costs in 2025 and into early 2026. Although increased soybean production and a subsequent price correction led to a drop in feed costs, the cost of other production inputs continued to climb. 

Energy costs grew as a share of total production expenditure, as producers relied heavily on backup generators during extended blackouts, paying for diesel fuel and ongoing maintenance. These additional costs were passed on to buyers, pushing retail chicken meat prices higher. Nevertheless, chicken remains the cheapest animal protein available to Ukrainian consumers and accounts for approximately half of all animal protein consumption in the country.

War-related risks continue to shape the production outlook for 2026. These include process stalls linked to prolonged power outages, increased costs from the intensive use of alternative electricity sources, stagnant demand due to continuing population outflows, workforce shortages and increased staff turnover caused by conscription, logistical and cold storage difficulties, severe winter weather conditions requiring additional heating, and work interruptions due to heightened air alerts. 

Many producers had to slow down output in the second half of 2025 and invest in new energy-generating equipment. Disease risk also remains a concern, though no highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in commercial flocks were recorded in Ukraine during 2025. 

One non-poultry HPAI case was reported in the north of the country.

Beyond Meat forecast current-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, as it grapples with sluggish demand for its once-iconic plant-based products, reported Reuters

The company expects quarterly revenue of $60 million to $65 million, lower than analysts' expectations of about $67 million, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Beyond Meat shares, which closed higher by about 13% on Wednesday, fell 9% in extended trading to about 94 cents.

The company, which has struggled to revive the initial enthusiasm for its faux-meat products, has been rolling out new products to drum up demand. Earlier this year, it entered into new plant-based categories, launching products such as Beyond Immerse protein drinks, catering to protein-conscious consumers.

For the first quarter, Beyond Meat posted revenue of $58.2 million, compared with analysts' average estimate of $58.1 million.

The company reported a loss of 10 cents per share for the quarter on an adjusted basis, compared with a loss of 77 cents per share a year earlier.

Beyond Meat had filed its delayed annual report on April 9 after identifying material weaknesses in inventory accounting controls, including issues related to excess or obsolete stock, thereby avoiding the need to submit a formal plan to regain Nasdaq compliance.

Orange Juice 6.11% 1.74 USD
Naphthapreis (European) 2.84% 890.87 USD
Heating Oil 2.09% 103.03 USD
Cotton 2.08% 0.85 USD
RBOB Gasoline 2.05% 3.53 USD

Commodity Prices

Precious Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Gold
4,715.39
%
USD per Troy Ounce
06:49:00 AM
Palladium
1,500.00
%
USD per Troy Ounce
05:23:00 AM
Platinum
2,064.50
%
USD per Troy Ounce
05:23:00 AM
Silver
80.34
%
USD per Troy Ounce
05:23:00 AM
Energy Price % +/- Unit Date
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
2.76
-0.43%
-0.01
USD per MMBtu
5/8/2026
Heating Oil
103.03
2.09%
2.11
USD per 100 Liter
5/8/2026
Coal
107.10
0.52%
0.55
per Ton
5/8/2026
RBOB Gasoline
3.53
2.05%
0.07
per Gallone
5/8/2026
Oil (Brent)
101.29
-2.01%
-2.08
USD per Barrel
5/8/2026
Oil (WTI)
95.42
0.64%
0.61
USD per Barrel
5/8/2026
Industrial Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Aluminium
3,506.55
0.27%
9.60
USD per Ton
5/8/2026
Lead
1,967.00
-0.66%
-13.00
USD per Ton
5/8/2026
Copper
13,445.00
0.89%
119.00
USD per Ton
5/8/2026
Nickel
18,890.00
0.35%
65.00
USD per Ton
5/8/2026
Zinc
3,417.00
-0.23%
-8.00
USD per Ton
5/8/2026
Tin
53,910.00
-1.17%
-640.00
USD per Ton
5/8/2026
Agriculture Price % +/- Unit Date
Cotton
0.85
2.08%
0.02
USc per lb.
5/8/2026
Oats
3.31
1.69%
0.06
USc per Bushel
5/8/2026
Lumber
580.00
0.61%
3.50
per 1.000 board feet
5/8/2026
Coffee
2.90
-0.46%
-0.01
USc per lb.
5/8/2026
Cocoa
3,168.00
-3.39%
-111.00
GBP per Ton
5/8/2026
Live Cattle
2.49
-0.35%
-0.01
USD per lb.
5/8/2026
Lean Hog
0.91
-0.63%
-0.01
USc per lb.
5/8/2026
Corn
4.56
0.77%
0.04
USc per Bushel
5/8/2026
Feeder Cattle
3.67
0.20%
0.01
USc per lb.
5/8/2026
Milk
16.95
-0.59%
-0.10
USD per cwt.sh.
5/8/2026
Orange Juice
1.74
6.11%
0.10
USc per lb.
5/8/2026
Palm Oil
4,478.00
-0.29%
-13.00
Ringgit per Ton
5/8/2026
Rapeseed
510.25
-1.35%
-7.00
EUR per Ton
5/7/2026
Rice
11.82
1.33%
0.16
per cwt.
5/8/2026
Soybean Meal
322.50
0.37%
1.20
USD per Ton
5/8/2026
Soybeans
11.94
1.47%
0.17
USc per Bushel
5/8/2026
Soybean Oil
0.75
0.23%
USD per lb.
5/8/2026
Wheat
187.50
-1.19%
-2.25
USc per Ton
5/7/2026
Sugar
0.15
1.03%
USc per lb.
5/8/2026

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